Research Interest
    I am interested in developing data-driven mathematical modelling frameworks for analyzing biological systems. My current research studies infectious disease dynamics within a host and at the population level. I used ordinary differential equations (ODEs), partial differential equations (PDEs), agent-based models, and statistical and machine-learning models. The ODE and PDE models are analyzed using dynamical systems theory, perturbation theory, asymptotic analysis, and biophysic techniques. I also analyze my models numerically using the finite difference, finite element, and closest point methods. Below are my research areas:


    • Viral dynamics modelling: Interested in viruses such as HIV, SARS-CoV-2, HBV, HCV, Ebola, etc. Develop mathematical modelling framework for analyzing the evolution of viruses in an infected host. Understand the relationship between total virus and infectious virus during infection, the growth and decline rate of the virus, the virus-immune interaction during infection, and the overall kinetics of the virus during infection. Provide mathematical modelling support for drug development.

    • Population level infectious disease modelling: Interested in the same diseases as listed above, including malaria and cholera. Use data-driven mathematical modeling to study the evolution of these diseases in a population and understand the effectiveness of intervention implemented to control the spead of the diseases. Study the effect of adaptive human behaviour on the spread of infectious disease in a populattion. Provide modeling support to public health official and policymakers. I was part of the COVID-19 PWIAS Working Groups: Mathematical Modelling to Understand COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics in British Columbia during the COVID-19 pandemic.





    List of publications and preprints:

    1. Oscillatory instabilities in dynamically active signalling compartments coupled via bulk diffusion in a 3-D spherical domain. Preprint
      2. Submitted to Physica D, 2024 DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura and Michael J. Ward.

    2. Mathematical analysis reveals the consequential impact of HIV on mpox control in the MSM community. Preprint
      3. Submitted to Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2024 DOI
      Andrew Omame, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Qing Han, Adeniyi Ebenezer, Nicola L. Bragazzi, Xiaoying Wang, Woldegebriel A. Woldegerima, and Jude D. Kong.

    3. Understanding early HIV-1 rebound dynamics following antiretroviral therapy interruption: The importance of effector cell expansion Preprint
      4. PLoS Pathogens 20(7): e1012236, 2024 DOI
      Tin Phan, Jessica M Conway, Nicole Pagane, Jasmine Kreig, Narmada Sambaturu, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Jonathan Z Li, Ruy M Ribeiro, Ruian Ke, and Alan S Perelson.

    4. A multiscale model of the action of a capsid assembly modulator for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B Preprint
      5. Submitted to Plos Comptutational Biology, 2024: Under review.
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Tyler Cassidy, Ruy M. Ribeiro, and Alan S. Perelson

    5. The kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on a human challenge study
      6. PNAS 2024, Vol. 121, No. 46: 121(46)e2406303121. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Ruy M. Ribeiro, Carolin Zitzmann, Tin Phan, Ruian Ke, and Alan S. Perelson

    6. Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in an MSM population: a mathematical modeling study. Preprint
      7. Infectious Disease Modelling, 9(2024)1117e1137, 2024. DOI
      Andrew Omame, Qing Han, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Adeniyi Ebenezer, Nicola L. Bragazzi, Xiaoying Wang, Jude D. Kong, and Woldegebriel A. Woldegerima.

    7. Regional variation and epidemiological insights in malaria underestimation in Cameroon. Preprint
      8. Submitted to Infectious Disease Modelling, 2024 (Minor revision required).
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Qing Han, Ghislain Rutayisire, Agnes Adom-Konadu, Ngem Bede Yong, Okwen Patrick Mbah, David Poumo Tchouassi, Kingsley Badu, and Jude D. Kong

    8. Asymptotic analysis and simulation of mean first passage time for active Brownian particles in 1-D. Preprint
      9. SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 2024. Vol. 84, No. 3, pp 1079-1095 DOI .
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura and Zhiwei Peng

    9. Quantifying the basic reproductionnumber and underestimated fraction ofMpox cases worldwide at the onset ofthe outbreak. Preprint
      10. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 21: 20230637, Vol. 21, Issue 216, 2024 DOI .
      Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Qing Han, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, and Jude Kong

    10. The determinants of malaria transmission and mortality rates in Africa: A cross-country Analysis.
      11. Selin Tahir, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, David P. Tchouassi, Mutala Abdul-Hakim, THOMAS KWAME ADDISON, Kingsley Badu, Andreas Buttenschoen, Pravesh Debba, Qing Han, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Bruce Mellado Garcia, Zahra Movahedi Nia, Tsholofelo Nyeleti, Xiaoying Wang, and Jude Kong

    11. Understanding the impact of mobility on COVID-19 spread: a hybrid gravity-metapopulation model of COVID-19 Preprint
      12. PLOS Computational Biology 19(5):e1011123. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Notice Ringa, Prince A. Adu, Sunny Mak, Naveed Z. Janjua, Mike A. Irvine, and Michael Otterstatter

    12. A generalized distributed delay model of COVID-19: an endemic model with immunity waning Preprint
      13. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Volume 20, Issue 3: 5379-5412, 2023. DOI
      Sarafa Adewale Iyaniwura, Rabiu Musa and Jude D. Kong

    13. Adaptive changes in sexual behavior in the high-risk population in response to human monkeypox transmission in Canada can control the outbreak: insights from a two-group, two-route epidemic model Preprint
      14. Journal of Medical Virology: 2023;95:e28575. DOI
      Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Qing Han, Sarafa Adewale Iyaniwura, Andrew Omame, Aminath Shausan, Xiaoying Wang, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Jianhong Wu, and Jude Dzevela Kong

    14. Knowing the unknown: the underestimation of monkeypox cases. Insights and implications from an integrative review of the literature Preprint
      15. Frontiers in Microbiology: Infectious Agents and Disease. 13:1011049, 2022. DOI
      Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Sarafa Adewale Iyaniwura, Qing Han, Xiaoying Wang, Aminath Shausan, Kingsley Badu, Patrick Okwen, Cheryl Prescod, Michelle Westin, Andrew Omame, Manlio Converti, Bruce Mellado, Jianhong Wu and Jude Dzevela Kong

    15. Association between close interpersonal contact and vaccine hesitancy: findings from a population-based survey in Canada Preprint
      16. Frontiers in Public Health, 2022. DOI
      Prince A. Adu, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Bushra Mahmood, Dahn Jeong, Makuza Jean Damascene, Georgine Cua, Mawuena Binka, Hector A. Velasquez, Notice Ringa, Stanley Wong, Amanda Yu, Mike A. Irvine, Michael Otterstatter, and Naveed Z. Janjua.

    16. The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa Preprint
      17. PLoS ONE 17(2), 2022. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Rabiu Musa, Jummy F. David, and Jude D. Kong.

    17. Impact of routine asymptomatic screening on COVID-19 incidence in a highly vaccinated university population Preprint
      18. Submitted to CMAJ Open, 2021. Under review.
      Rebeca Cardim Falcao, Michael Otterstatter, May A. Ahmed, Michelle Spencer, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Naveed Z. Janjua, Geoff McKee and Mike A. Irvine

    18. Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in British Columbia: an age-structured model with time-dependent contact rates Preprint
      19. Epidemics 39 (2022) 100559. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Rebeca Cardim Falcao, Notice Ringa, Prince A. Adu, Michelle Spencer, Marsha Taylor, Caroline Colijn, Daniel Coombs, Naveed Z. Janjua, Mike A. Irvine and Michael Otterstatter

    19. Effect of human mobility on the spatial spread of airborne diseases: an epidemic model with indirect transmission Preprint
      20. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (2022) 84:63. DOI
      Jummy F. David and Sarafa A. Iyaniwura

    20. Social contacts and transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada Preprint
      21. Frontiers in Public Health, 2022 DOI
      Notice Ringa, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Samara David, Mike A. Irvine, Prince Adu, Michelle Spencer, Naveed Z. Janjua, and Michael C. Otterstatter

    21. Assessing the potential impact of immunity waning on the dynamics of COVID-19: an endemic model of COVID-19 Preprint
      22. Nonlinear Dynamics, 2022. DOI
      Rabiu Musa and Sarafa A. Iyaniwura

    22. Cohort profile: the British Columbia COVID-19 Population Mixing Patterns Survey(BC-Mix) Preprint
      23. British Medical Journal (BMJ) Open, 2022; 12:e056615. DOI
      Prince A. Adu, Mawuena Binka, Bushra Mahmood, Dahn Jeong, Terri Buller-Taylor, Makuza Jean Damascene, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Notice Ringa, Hector A. Velasquez Garcia, Stanley Wong, Amanda Yu, Sofia Bartlett, James Wilton, Mike A. Irvine, Michael Otterstatter, Naveed Z. Janjua

    23. Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study Preprint
      24. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2021 18(6): 8905-8932. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Rabiu Musa, Jummy F. David, and Jude D. Kong.

    24. Modeling the potential impact of indirect transmission on COVID-19 epidemic. Preprint
      25. Submitted to Mathematical Biosciences, 2020: Under review.
      Jummy David, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Pei Yuan, Yi Tan, Jude Kong, and Huaiping Zhu.

    25. Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities. Preprint
      26. Royal Society Open Science. Volume 9 Issue 1, 9: 211710, 2022 DOI
      Jessica E. Stockdale, Sean C. Anderson, Andrew M. Edwards, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Nicola Mulberry, Michael C. Otterstatter, Naveed Z. Janjua, Daniel Coombs, Caroline Colijn, and Michael A Irvine.

    26. Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups. Preprint
      27. Vaccine, 2021: Volume 39, Issue 15, Pages 2020-2023. DOI
      Manish Sadarangani, Bahaa Abu Raya, Jessica M.Conway, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Rebeca Cardim Falcao, Caroline Colijn, Daniel Coombs, and Soren Gantt.

    27. Asymptotics of the Principal Eigenvalue of the Laplacian in 2-D Periodic Domains with Small Traps. Preprint
      28. European J. Applied Math, 2021 DOI
      Frederic Paquin-Lefebvre, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura and Michael J. Ward.

    28. Synchronous Oscillations for a Coupled Cell-Bulk PDE-ODE model with Localized Cells on R^2. Preprint
      29. Journal of Engr. Math, Vol. 127, No. 18, 2021. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Jia Guo and Michael J. Ward.

    29. Pattern Forming Systems Coupling Linear Bulk Diffusion to Dynamically Active Membranes or Cells: Modeling, Analysis, and Computation. Preprint
      30. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 379(2213), 2021. DOI
      Daniel Gomez, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Frederic Paquin-Lefebvre and Michael J. Ward.

    30. Asymptotic Analysis for the Mean First Passage Time in Finite or Spatially Periodic2-D Domains with a Cluster of Small Traps. Preprint
      31. The ANZIAM Journal, Volume 63, Issue 1, January 2021, pp. 1-22. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura and Michael J. Ward.

    31. Synchrony and Oscillatory Dynamics for a 2-D PDE-ODE Model of Diffusion-Mediated Communication Between Small Signaling Compartments Preprint
      32. SIAM J. Applied Dynamical Systems (SIADS), 20(1), 438-499 (62 pages), 2021. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura and Michael J. Ward.

    32. How much leeway is there to relax COVID-19 control measures? Preprint
      33. Epidemics 35 (2021) 100453. DOI
      S.C. Anderson, N. Mulberry, A.M. Edwards, J.E. Stockdale, S.A. Iyaniwura , R.C. Falcao, M.C. Otterstatter, N.Z. Janjua, D. Coombs, and C. Colijn.

    33. Localized Signaling Compartments in 2-D Coupled by a Bulk Diffusion Field: Quorum Sensing and Synchronous Oscillations in the Well-Mixed Limit Preprint
      34. European J. Applied Math, 2020. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura and Michael J. Ward.

    34. Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing Preprint
      35. PLoS computational biology, Vol. 12, No. 16, pages e1008274, 2020. DOI
      S.C. Anderson, A.M. Edwards, M. Yerlanov, N. Mulberry, J.E. Stockdale, S.A. Iyaniwura , R.C. Falcao, M.C. Otterstatter, M.A. Irvine, N.Z. Janjua, D. Coombs, and C. Colijn.

    35. Optimization of the Mean First Passage Time in Near-Disk and Elliptical Domains in 2-D with Small Absorbing Traps Preprint
      36. SIAM Review, 2021, Vol. 63, No. 3 : pp. 525-555 . DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Tony Wong, Colin B. Macdonald and Michael J. Ward.

    36. A novel approach to modelling the spatial spread of airborne diseases: an epidemic model with indirect transmission. Preprint
      37. Journal of Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE), 17(4): 3294-3328, 2020. DOI
      Jummy F. David, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Michael J. Ward, and Fred Brauer.

    37. Simulation and Optimization of Mean First Passage Time problem in 2-D using Numerical Embedded methods and perturbation Theory. Preprint
      38. SIAM J. Multiscale Modeling and Simulation, 2021, Vol. 19, No. 3 : pp. 1367-1393. DOI
      Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Tony Wong, Michael J. Ward, and Colin B. Macdonald.


    Some Talks and Posters:

    • Computational and Mathematical Population Dynamics 6 (CMPD6)
      University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, 23-27 May 2023.
      Title: Understanding the dynamics of chronic Hepatitis B virus infection during treatment

    • International Conference on Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Populations in Biological Systems (ICMA-VIII).
      University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, Louisiana, USA, October 2022.
      Title: Understanding the efficacy of capsid protein allosteric modulators using a multiscale model of hepatitis B virus

    • Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) multi-province COVID modeling full-team meetings, April 2022.
      Title: Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in British Columbia: an age-structured model with time-dependent contact rates Slides

    • Society for Mathematical Biology conference, SMB2021.
      Title: Oscillatory instabilities for a 2-D coupled ODE-PDE Model of Diffusion-Mediated Communication Between Small Signaling Compartments Slides

    • Scientific Computing meets Machines Learning and Life Sciences conference, Texas Tech University, Oct. 2019.
      Title: Simulation of mean first passage time on embedded two-dimensional domians. Poster

    • Conference on Multicscale Modeling in Biology, University of Minnesota, May 20-22 2019.
      Title: Quorum sensing and synchronous oscillations triggered by bulk diffusion coupled signaling compartments. Poster

    • Mathematical Biology seminar at UBC, Nov. 2018.
      Title: Instability triggered by a defector cell in a group of coupled dynamically active cells. Slides

    • Annual Institute of Applied Mathematics (IAM) retreat, B.C. April 2018.
      Title: Quorum sensing in coupled cell-bulk models. Slides

    • Workshop on numerical methods for Surface PDES, Loon lake, B.C. June 2017.
      Title: Mean first passage time for a small periodic moving trap inside a reflecting disk. Slides

    • Graduate Summit in Mathematical Biology and Applied PDE, Jasper, Alberta May 2017.
      Title: Approximation of switching boundary with partially absorbing boundary. Poster


    Theses:




Updated: March, 2024.